Two and a half years have passed since the end of the calamitous 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh and we are still far away from peace. At the beginning it seemed to many that nothing could threaten the Armenia-Artsakh communications and that the Russian presence in the region ensured at least a modicum of security, however things changed dramatically with the outbreak of the Kremlin's war in Ukraine in February 2022.
Text: Tigran Zakaryan
Azerbaijan, which signed a comprehensive agreement on partnership with Russia on the very eve of the invasion, has become an increasingly important gateway for Moscow under heavy Western sanctions. Russia's regional influence is rapidly declining and the Turkish leader's recent remark about the completion of the Russian peacekeeping mission in Karabakh by 2025, made against the background of other steps defying Moscow, is a recent illustration of this trend.
Meanwhile the situation has assumed proportions of a true humanitarian catastrophe in the besieged Artsakh. A whole region is turned into a ghetto having to rely on nothing but local meager resources for subsistence. Malnutrition has become a real problem, along with shortage of fuel, electricity, medicaments, hygiene and other items, added recently by other problems arising from the above-mentioned shortages, such as failure of garbage collection in the cities, shortage of water and so on. Baku's cynical assertions on the "readiness to provide humanitarian aid" with no sign of easing the blockade imposed since December 2022 is unfortunately bought by some international actors.
The general feeling in Armenia is a mix of frustration, hopelessness and anger, while the Foreign Ministry and other officials in both Artsakh and Armenia keep making constant appeals to international actors calling for involvement in the matter and urging Russia to implement its commitments enshrined in the tripartite agreement of 9 November 2020. However, under the current situation of general instability and security crisis in the larger region, it seems that the cost of offenses against humanity has depreciated and we see lots of acts committed by state actors which are currently left unpunished for their criminal acts and are unlikely to be held responsible for them in the future. This logic, of course, encourages the Azerbaijani leader, who has a long record of warlike and racist rhetoric and whose current politics towards Armenia and Armenians is a clear example of Machtpolitik (power politics).
Meanwhile Armenia's foreign policy since the end of the 44-day war was moving towards "lowering the bar of expectations", initially understood as a sort of arrangement with Azerbaijani authorities centered around a "status within Azerbaijan's territorial integrity" while currently the very existence of Armenians in the region is fundamentally jeopardized.
Armenian foreign policy has few options available, and precisely because of that decisions must be made with meticulous calculation and making best use of the scarce resources. Pressures and appeals to international players should be more precise and aimed at specific results, rather than general expressions of "sympathy" or "concern". A very important aspect of Armenian diplomacy, which does not need too much publicity is the search for potential partners in defense and security.
Armenia needs a reform in its defense, including rearmament, updates of defense doctrines and radical improvements in the quality of its command staff and methods, all of which could be vitally needed in the near future. Military preparedness should be at a level to discourage Azerbaijan's growing ambitions, otherwise the security of the internationally recognized territory of Armenia cannot be guaranteed.
We need to realize this clearly and understand that this can be effectively done only under a dynamic solidarity of the society. This implies a diversity of opinions, and difference in approaches, however the parties involved should be genuinely driven by the incentive of finding a solution of the situation and readiness to put their resources and potential to the service of the common cause, which is strengthening the Armenian nation-state.
This is a responsibility that has to be assumed by each and every political force, public figure and influence group and the public should also judge those actors against those standards. Populist discourses which offer some psychological comfort but no realistic solutions are already outdated. Meanwhile sound discussions about all possible options (including ones that are considered as unacceptable) should be treated with less passion, taking into consideration all possible losses and benefits.
In the current situation, it is very hard to make well-judged decisions, yet they are absolutely necessary. As a society we need to help each other to express emotions where needed and to solve problems in a more cool-headed way. Let us not forget that even a misfortune and loss can be overcome more easily if people who experience it keep together. Overcoming disunity is perhaps the first point on our agenda.
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