Protests in Iran erupted on September 16, after a 22-year-old woman of Kurdish ethnic background, Mahsa Amini, died in hospital reportedly due to torture at the hands of religious morality police officers. There were 326 dead during the mass protests in Iran as of Nov 12, according to the Oslo-based Iran Human Rights organization. Western political figures point out the human rights problems in Iran, and Iranian authorities on the other hand blame the West for inciting the demonstrations. Meanwhile, the instability in Iran contains challenges for the region and Armenia as well.
Text by Zhanna Vardanyan
The beginning of protests
There are 3 main factors that sent waves of anger among the Iranians after Mahsa Amini’s death:
- Amini was arrested for wearing the headscarf the wrong way,
- She has died in custody,
- She was a woman.
According to the Iranian authorities, Amini has had health problems, as a result of which she fainted in the police station.They also published a video depicting the moment she fainted. Amini’s relatives, however, denied she had health problems. Despite the government's claims, the popular version was that Amini was beaten while being detained and died as a result of violence.
So the first protests began in the Kurdistan province and the capital Tehran, and then protests gradually spread to almost all regions of Iran. From the beginning, the demonstrators’ demands concentrated on human rights, social freedoms and slogans against the Islamic Republic.
The young people were and are the main driving force of the protests. Demonstrations are also accompanied by riots, burning of buildings, attacks on policemen. According to the Iran Human Rights organization, an NGO based in Oslo, Norway as of Nov 12, 326 people have died during the mass protests.
The background and features of protests
Protests used to happen quite often in Iran with economic problems topping among their main triggers. The last large-scale demonstrations held in the country are the December 2017-January 2018 and November 2019 demonstrations. In the first case, the reason for the protests was the increase of price of eggs, while in the second case was the increase of the gasoline price. During these years, smaller and local demonstrations were also organized in Iran, provoked by various issues, such as lack of electricity during summer in the country, lack of water in some provinces, as well as the hijab problem.
The current protests are now distinguished by their duration and predominance of a political agenda. Political slogans such as “Death to Supreme leader”, "No to the Islamic Republic" were voiced at previous demonstrations too, however their main motivation was economic. Meanwhile the main demands of protesters now is the change of the political system itself and establishment of a secular model of governance*.
The reason for the protest is the deep disappointment with the country's authorities among the Iranian society. This is due to the seemingly endless problems of the Iranian economy caused by the sanctions. Years ago the Iranians were still keeping hope that the Nuclear Deal would help them get out of that situation. But after the failure of the deal they were completely disappointed. There was also accumulated public discontent over social policies of the IRI officials.
Participation rate in the last presidential elections showed that the change of the government does not even have any importance for the broad sections of the society. They believe that the change of the whole political system is necessary for positive changes in the country including in economical, social freedom issues. Therefore, the death of Mahsa Amini was a trigger to raise the voice of dissatisfaction.
These Iranian protests are also distinguished by the unprecedented support of the West. Even US president Biden made statements supporting the protesters. The US, the EU, Canada and the UK imposed sanctions on Iran for the crackdown on the demonstrations. Iranians living in different countries also hold various protest actions supporting demonstrations in Iran. Along with the continuation of the protests, they also began to define it as a “revolution”.
Iranian authorities accuse the US of inciting demonstrations and riots, stating that they were looking for pretexts to start a large protest movement in Iran and have been preparing for it for years. According to the Iranian officials, the EU, Israel, and Saudi Arabia also support US policies on this issue.
Pan-Turkic elements
The separatist elements now add fuel to the fire. Since Mahsa Amini was Kurdish, an attempt was made to give an ethnic coloring to the demonstrations.
But Pan-Turkic elements are the most active section in the protest movement. They try to represent the protests in the Turkic-speaking provinces as a struggle of so-called “South Azerbaijan''. Pan-Turkic and marginal groups have also organized some provocative actions, such as the installation of the separatists’ flags or replacing pictures of supreme leader Ali Khameneni on the buildings with pictures of Ilham Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan in the Turkic-speaking cities of Iran.
Against the backdrop of this Azerbaijan and Turkey have intensified their anti-Iranian propaganda, stressing the need for the secession of “South Azerbaijan” from the Islamic Republic and the protection of “Azerbaijanis” in that region.
It is obvious that such an approach is not only within the framework of Pan-Turkic ideas, but also due to the developments taking place in the South Caucasus and Iran's position towards the “Zangezur corridor” issue and Armenia's territorial integrity.
Baku and Ankara expect that if Iran gets stuck in internal problems, it will pay less attention to the “Zangezur corridor” issue. It is not a coincidence that Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi announced in the meeting with Ilham Aliyev in Astana in October that internal problems do not distract Iran from its strategic interests.
Moreover, in the middle of October, Iran held military exercises on the shores of the Araks river on the border of Iran and Nakhijevan and then officially opened a consulate general in the city of Kapan, in the Syunik region of Armenia.
Conclusion
In general the West is trying to use the demonstrations as a means of pressure against Iran, especially to extract concessions in nuclear negotiations. The West also hopes that the protests will eventually lead to the change of political system in Iran. But the Ismalic Republic officials assure that Iranians made their choice 43 years ago and nothing will divert them from that path. In this regard, it is noteworthy that actions supporting the authorities are also being organized in Iran. And most importantly, the main supporters of the political system are the security forces, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
At the same time, the Iranian authorities must be able to implement significant reforms to soothe public discontent. Otherwise, based on the current problems in the country, there will be continuous demonstrations in Iran, and each subsequent demonstration may be more organized. For Iran, this means constant tension and instability, and its adversaries can take advantage of this.
In this context, the stability of Iran is important for Armenia because a stable Iran can make more influence in the region and can help Yerevan to restrain the Azerbaijani-Turkish aggressive politics against Armenia.
*Iran's political system combines features of presidential democracy and theocracy. The head of state is the Supreme leader. He also is commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The president is the second highest ranking official and has limited authority in Iran.