Republican’s Democratic Partner

27.01.2025

Republican’s Democratic Partner

The United States and Armenia signed a strategic partnership agreement on January 14, marking a milestone in Armenian-American relations. The agreement, one of the Biden administration's final acts, has become a logical conclusion of the last 4 years of Armenian-American relationships, which could be considered the most dynamic and productive since the establishment of the republic.
However, the agreement's implementation now falls to the incoming Trump administration. Whether the new administration will maintain this strategic partnership remains uncertain.

Text: Arno Khlgatyan


The peacekeeper

Donald Trump has become the first Republican candidate in the 21st century to win the elections by popular vote, gaining over 78 million ballots compared to Kamala Harris's 75 million. The January 20 inauguration set new fundraising records, while financial markets surged following his November election victory.

It seems that Trump's campaign promise as a "Global Peacekeeper," pledging swift resolutions to both the Ukraine war and the Israel-Gaza conflict, has fueled public optimism for his presidency.


The "peace" narrative has served as a central theme in Armenian foreign policy, seemingly aligning with Trump's promised approach. This surface alignment could suggest a natural continuation of U.S.-Armenian cooperation toward global stability.

However, Armenia's peace and development strategy was crafted under Democratic Party regional policies. The Republicans' more isolationist tendencies may leave Armenian interests outside their primary considerations.

 

Red and Blue Styles

The Biden presidency marked unprecedented growth in U.S.-Armenian political relations through several historic firsts:

  1. Biden's official recognition of the Armenian Genocide during the April 24 annual statement
  2. Nancy Pelosi's visit to Armenia following her infamous Taiwan trip
  3. The first-ever U.S.-Armenia joint military exercises - Eagle Partner 2023

Congressional initiatives drove much of this progress, aiming to strengthen Armenian democratic institutions. The new Strategic Partnership agreement reflects this focus on multiple points.:

2. Our friendship derives from our common commitment to democratic values and our shared belief that democracy is the chief basis for political legitimacy and therefore, stability.
3. Cooperation between democratic partners will help promote peace and stability.

In practice, this partnership doesn't imply a traditional military alliance requiringthe U.S. to defend Armenia at any moment, as evidenced during the September 2023 Azerbaijani offensive that led to the exodus of Armenians from Artsakh. Rather, it establishes broad cooperation across sectors - from human rights to high-tech industries Until the moment Armenia starts operating as a full-functioning democratic country.

 

 

In contrast to Biden's engagement, Trump's 2016-2020 term showed minimal attention to Armenia, referring to it only once by calling Armenians "great business people" and mentioning "working on something." Trump's track record with Armenia includes concerning actions:

  1. The Trump/Pence administration increased Azerbaijan's military aid to over $100 million, opposing Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act that prohibits such aid unless the President deems it against U.S. interests. Armenia received only a $10 million standard military aid package.
  2. Trump blocked Congressional-approved humanitarian aid to Artsakh.
  3. His administration attempted, unsuccessfully, to block the Armenian Genocide Resolution in Congress.


While Trump wasn't directly responsible for the Second Artsakh War outcome, his South Caucasus policies played their role in disturbing the fragile balance of power between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Therefore the difference between Democratic and Republican parties' ruling styles can be defined as system-and aim-based.
The blues build systematic international relationships focused on institutions, while the Reds focus on “getting the job done” prioritizing immediate U.S. geopolitical interests.  The pro-Turkish position held by the most Republican U.S. officials and $100 million aid to Azerbaijan comes simply from the fact that America pursued to create a strong counterweight against their main rival in the area — Iran.


South of Russia, North of Iran

During 2020-2024, Armenia had a chance to increase its weight as an international player.  Pivoting from Russia while building stronger relationships with the European Union, France, and maintaining common interests with India – all these showcased the tendencies of the Armenian government to diversify its foreign ties. 
Yet Trump's potential policies would likely not address Armenia directly, instead viewing it primarily through its regional connections with Russia and Iran and its geopolitical significance.
Iran has become Armenia's most important neighbor, with trade growing 43% and the North-West corridor offering Iran key access to European markets. Their strategic alliance strengthens as Iran supports Armenian territorial integrity to secure its northern border.
Armenia's relations with Iran’s major enemy Israel remain cold, particularly after Armenia recognizing Palestine as an independent state. What’s important to understand about the Republican party is that it’s strictly Pro-Israelian. Whatever necessary to defeat Iran would be done. The return to the policy of “maximum pressure” has already been announced by Trump.

 

 

Despite the necessity to maintain strategic ties with Iran, this relationship could become a weak point in Armenian-U.S. dialogue if tensions between the powers escalate. 

On the other hand, Trump’s policies on Russia are different. Constant complementary position toward Vladimir Putin and the attempt to end the Ukrainian War without withdrawal of conquered land implies a potential warming of the relationships. The turnover from Russia in the last four years, though inevitable, could also damage the U.S. – Armenia relationships. Attempted improvement between Armenia and Ukraine was noticed by Western Elites, but in the eyes of the new Administration could seem pointless.

Armenia's northern neighbor Georgia has already accepted Russian influence. After signing a strategic partnership with the U.S. in 2009, Georgia saw the deal suspended when it halted Euro-Integration efforts. Tbilisi now awaits Trump's administration to discuss future developments.

In 2024, Prime Ministers Nikol Pashinyan and Irakli Kobakhidze signed a strategic partnership. Though following different paths - Georgia pro-Russian and Armenia pro-EU - their divergent directions could help balance regional stability during upcoming turbulent years.
 

New Republicans 

One notable Trump characteristic that could upend expected regional policies is his unpredictability.

Though running under the same slogan, his new presidency would likely differ from his first term. Initially entering politics as a novice billionaire entertainer, Trump became a Republican mascot, enabling an unpopular and outdated party to advance its agenda. 

Now, the former Republican elites are mostly opposing Trump. For example, ex vice-president Dick Cheney has openly endorsed Kamala Harris. 

The reason is that the new administration reflects a generational shift from Trump's first term. While Vice President Mike Pence was 57 when taking office, J.D. Vance, at 40, becomes the youngest VP pick in history. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson started at 64, compared to Marco Rubio at 53. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis was 66, while Pete Hegseth is now 44. This pattern continues throughout the cabinet.

The new administration members, while more isolationist and nationalist than previous Republican globalists, are notably more religious. As of Armenia, it has received unprecedented mention during recent elections.

Donald Trump himself mentions Armenia a few times.

“When I am President, I will protect persecuted Christians, I will work to stop the violence and ethnic cleansing, and we will restore PEACE between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Trump posted on the “Truth” social media.

Also, he held a phone call with Catholicos of the Great House of Cilicia Aram the First, “ expressed his full support for the issue of Artsakh [Nagorno-Karabakh] and the establishment of complete peace within the region.”
Furthermore, vice-President J.D. Vance highlighted “the rapid overthrow of the cease-fire agreement in Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan and the exodus of an ancient Christian community”.

The “Christian card” could provide Armenia with opportunities to maneuver diplomatically in the coming years. Armenia’s Christian heritage, as well as the plight of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, might resonate with Trump’s evangelical base and his administration’s nationalist values.

 

 

Once again, Armenia finds itself balancing between global powers and interests - a critical position requiring careful navigation for future progress. Though Trump's influence could be both destructive and beneficial in unpredictable ways, Armenia's recent strategic partnership agreement supports institutional development toward self-sufficiency. Building independence and strength remains essential for surviving global tensions while establishing Armenia as a reliable strategic partner.
 

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