Russain mediated ceasefire possibly ends the war between Azerbaijan and Artsakh.

Russain mediated ceasefire possibly ends the war between Azerbaijan and Artsakh.

Russian mediated ceasefire possibly ends the war between Azerbaijan and Artsakh. Armenian side agreed to radical concessions, Russian peacekeepers will enter the region.
 


Armenia and Azerbaijan, through the mediation of Russia, agreed to end the war in Nagorno-Karabakh from midnight on November 10. The agreement was signed via video link by the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan, Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was absent. However, it was Pashinyan who first announced the agreement: a post appeared on his Facebook that he agreed to the agreement "as a result of a deep analysis of the military situation ... and based on the belief that this is the best solution in the current situation."

 

Analysis of the military situation" - really difficult for the Armenian forces - and the text of the treaty shows that it can de facto save Artsakh. Putin said the agreement would "benefit everyone."

 

The main points of the agreement:

  • Russian peacekeepers are deployed on the line of contact.
  • Armenian Karabakh does not physically cease to exist, but its future status is not mentioned at all in the treaty.
  • Armenia must return to the control of Azerbaijan territories that were not part of the Soviet Nagorno-Karabakh region and which it seized in the early 1990s. The transfer of these regions, still occupied by Armenian forces, to Azerbaijan should take place between November 15 and December 1.
  • The territory of the Artsakh Republic itself will be reduced at the expense of the regions occupied by Azerbaijani troops during the war in 2020. Among other things, apparently, the Armenians are losing one of the main (from a strategic and symbolic point of view) cities of Artsakh - Shushi, which apparently was occupied by Azerbaijanis on November 7-9.
  • The capital of Artsakh, Stepanakert, which is 10 kilometers from Shushi, will actually remain under the control of the Armenians. It will be connected to Armenia by a corridor (Lachin corridor), which will also be guarded by Russian peacekeepers.
  • In exchange, Azerbaijan will receive the same corridor protected by Russia to the Nakhichevan region - its exclave, separated from the main territory of Azerbaijan by the territory of Armenia.
  • The parties agreed that refugees could return to all lands; judging by the fact that the Azerbaijani territories are being returned to Baku, we are talking about the return of Azerbaijanis to the Armenian part of Karabakh; before the war in the 1990s, an Azeri minority lived in Karabakh. The return process must take place with the participation of the UN.

A "center of peacekeeping forces" will be created, in the activities of which, as Aliyev said, the main ally of Azerbaijan - Turkey will take part. The fact that Ankara participated in the preparation of the treaty is evidenced by the fact that the first rumors about the imminent end of the war in Karabakh began to circulate in Turkey.
It is not clear from the text of the treaty on what rights the Armenian enclave in Karabakh will exist. 
The agreement is concluded for a period of five years (with the possibility of extension if neither party declares its withdrawal from the agreement).

Artsakh President Arayik Harutyunyan also agreed to the conditions of the ceasefire. According to him the fighting was already taking place on the outskirts of Stepanakert and if it continued at that pace, in a few days they would lose the whole of Artsakh, they would have many more casualties.

The Ministry of Defense of Armenia and the leadership of the Armed Forces also agreed to the conditions of the ceasefire and declared that "it was time to stop the bloodshed". and urged to refrain from actions that could undermine the foundations of statehood.
"On September 27, a war was unleashed against Artsakh, which was unprecedented in terms of forces, means, quantity and type of armament involved. It was unprecedented in the sense that our army was, in fact, fighting not only against the 10 million Azerbaijani armed forces, but also against Turkey's direct military participation, full and unconditional political, military and diplomatic support, as well as several thousand mercenary terrorists.
Our army, in these conditions, did its best and impossible to resist the enemy. Every soldier, officer and general of the Armenian army did his best for the defense of the Homeland, devoting himself to that struggle and creating many heroic stories. "This war has taken away our best sons, whose memory will forever remain in the hearts of all of us as true heroes of our time," the statement said.